🔗 Share this article

Shutdowns have become a recurring element of US politics – however this one feels especially difficult to resolve due to shifting political forces along with deep-seated animosity among both major parties.

Certain federal operations face a temporary halt, with approximately 750,000 people are expected to be put on furlough without pay as Republicans and Democrats can't agree regarding budget legislation.

Votes aimed at ending the deadlock continue to fall short, with little visibility on an off-ramp this time as both parties – including the nation's leader – perceive advantages in maintaining their positions.

These are several key factors that make things feel different in 2025.

1. For Democrats, it's about Trump – beyond healthcare issues

Democratic supporters has been demanding for months that their party more forcefully fights the Trump administration. Currently Democratic leaders have an opportunity to show they have listened.

Earlier this year, the Senate's top Democrat faced strong criticism after supporting GOP budget legislation thus preventing a shutdown in the spring. This time he's digging in.

This is a chance for Democrats to demonstrate they can take back some control from a presidency that has moved aggressively on its agenda.

Opposing the GOP budget proposal carries electoral dangers as citizens generally will grow frustrated with prolonged negotiations and impacts accumulate.

Democratic representatives are leveraging the shutdown fight to put a spotlight on expiring health insurance subsidies together with Republican-approved government healthcare cuts affecting low-income populations, both facing public opposition.

They are also trying to curtail the President's use of his executive powers to rescind or withhold money authorized legislatively, which he has done in international assistance and various federal programs.

Second, For Republicans, it's an opportunity

The President and one of his key officials have made little secret of the fact that they perceive an opening to make more of the cutbacks in government employment implemented during in the Republican's second presidency so far.

The nation's leader personally said last week that the shutdown had afforded him an "unprecedented opportunity", adding he intended to reduce funding for "Democrat agencies".

The White House said it would be left with a "challenging responsibility" of mass lay-offs to keep essential government services operating if the shutdown continued. An administration spokesperson said this was just "budgetary responsibility".

The extent of possible job cuts is still uncertain, though administration officials has been in discussions with federal budget authorities, or OMB, which is headed by the administration's budget director.

The administration's financial chief has previously declared the suspension of federal funding for Democratic-run parts the opposition party, including New York City and Illinois' largest city.

3. There's little trust between both parties

Whereas past government closures have been characterised by extended negotiations between the two parties in an effort to get government services running again, there appears to be minimal cooperative willingness for compromise presently.

Conversely, animosity prevails. Political tensions continued over the weekend, as both sides exchanging accusations for causing the impasse.

House Speaker from the majority party, charged opposition members of not being serious toward resolution, and maintaining positions over a deal "for electoral protection".

Simultaneously, the Senate leader made similar charges against their counterparts, stating how a majority party commitment to discuss healthcare subsidies once the government reopens can not be taken seriously.

The administration leader personally has escalated tensions by posting a computer-created controversial depiction of the Senate leader and the top Democrat opposition figure, where the legislator appears wearing traditional headwear and a moustache.

The representative and other Democrats called this racist, which was denied by the administration's second-in-command.

Fourth, The American Economy faces vulnerability

Analysts expect about 40% of government employees – more than 800,000 people – to face furlough due to the government closure.

That will depress spending – with broader economic consequences, including halted environmental approvals, delayed intellectual property processing, interrupted vendor payments and other kinds of federal operations tied to business comes to a halt.

A shutdown also injects new uncertainty into an economy currently experiencing disruption from multiple factors including tariffs, previous budget reductions, immigration raids and technological advancements.

Analysts estimate potential reduction of as much as 0.2 percentage points off US economic growth weekly during the closure.

However, economic activity generally rebounds most of that lost activity following resolution, as it would after disruption after major environmental events.

That could be one reason why financial markets have shown limited reaction to the ongoing impasse.

Conversely, experts indicate that if administration officials implement his threat of mass firings, economic harm might become extended in duration.