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Elections are now in progress for parliamentary elections in Holland, with recent surveys indicating that the anti-immigration leader Geert Wilders and his PVV party may repeat their win the most seats, although analysts believe the party stands little chance of joining the future coalition.

Polling Trends and Political Landscape

Wilders' party, which previously achieved a shock top result and formed a multi-party all-conservative coalition that collapsed within a year, is currently marginally ahead in surveys and is forecast to secure between 24 to 28 seats in the 150-seat parliament.

Nevertheless, the far-right party's support has declined since 2023, when it secured 37 parliamentary seats. Every significant political group have publicly ruled out entering into a coalition with the PVV leader, who precipitated the collapse of the previous government in June over disagreements concerning his controversial anti-refugee plans.

Major Parties and Projections

Following a campaign dominated by topics such as migration, healthcare costs, and the country's severe housing shortage, the centre-left Green Left/Labour party alliance, headed by ex-EU official Frans Timmermans, is placed a close second, projected to win between 22 and 26 parliamentary seats.

Also performing well is the centrist Democrats 66, predicted to boost its representation by almost five times to 21 to 25 seats, while the right-leaning Christian Democrats (CDA) is anticipated to significantly increase its seat tally to between 18 to 22.

Members of the previous government – comprising the Freedom Party, VVD, populist Farmer-Citizen Movement (BBB), and NSC – are all projected to see their representation reduced, with some facing heavy losses.

Voting Process and Political Division

In the proportional Dutch system, gaining just 0.67% of the national vote yields a party a seat in parliament. Among the 27 parties contesting the election – including parties for the over-50s, for youth, for animals, basic income advocates, and for sport – up to 16 could enter parliament.

This significant fragmentation means that no single party is ever likely to secure a majority, and Holland has been governed by multi-party governments – often including four parties in recent governments – for over 100 years.

Post-Election Scenarios

Wilders has stated that "the democratic process would end" in the Netherlands if the PVV ends up as the largest party yet is shut out of government. However, opponents and experts argue that first place does not assure government participation and that any governing alliance with a majority is a democratic outcome.

Although the final outcome is hard to predict and government negotiations may require months, political observers suggest that following the most extreme government in its recent history, the future government is likely to be a broad-based alliance led by either the centre-left or centrist right.

Election Day Details

Polling stations, such as those in the miniature city Madurodam in The Hague and the Anne Frank house in the capital city, began operations at 7.30am (6:30 GMT) and will conclude at 9:00 PM. A usually accurate exit poll is expected soon after closing time.

Once voting concludes, an official negotiator will test possible coalitions that could secure enough support in the legislature. Prospective coalition members will then negotiate an agreement for the coming term and must undergo a confidence vote in parliament before taking office.